Cape Cod, the Republican key
As Charlie raises money, remember: No Republican wins without the peninsula
Charlie Baker is going to have his big Cape Cod fundraiser after all, though he was forced to cancel the event set for August 20 because his invite included as one host Marty Meehan, former Democratic Congressman and now president of the University of Massachusetts public education system.
That’s a no-no. Meehan is a public employee and by state campaign finance laws cannot host a fundraiser.
If he had still been an elected Congressman, he could. But state employee, no.
That’s one of many campaign finance laws intended to separate money and politics from governing and policy -- which never really happens.
Baker’s committee pulled Meehan’s name off the invite, returned the money that had come in so far (for a little while anyway), and rescheduled to September 2, still at the Mashpee Willowbend home of George Regan Jr, a PR guy known and connected in Massachusetts political circles.
People have been keeping close tabs on this because it will be Baker’s first serious fundraiser in a long time, and some take it as indication that he is indeed planning to run for a third term – though Baker has been coy about his intentions.
That this first fundraiser will be held here also is intriguing, because this little peninsula plays a big, unappreciated role in state-wide elections:
No Republican can win in Massachusetts without carrying Cape Cod.
The reason for this political fact of life is this calculation:
Democrats always win in Boston and counties with large urban populations. Republicans have to try to depress those margins, and then open up leads on Cape Cod and a few more rural and conservative parts of the state.
Plus Cape Codders vote in droves; we always have some of the largest percentage turnouts. So you carry small Cape by 25,001 votes, lose big Boston by 25,000 votes, and guess what? You’re ahead. It’s all about the margins.
This truth works in federal elections as well. When US Senator Elizabeth Warren first ran against short-time incumbent Scott Brown, as soon as the polls closed and results trickled in from the Cape, political junkies called it for Warren. She had gotten close to him on the peninsula, unlike three years earlier when he trounced Martha Coakley around here. No big Cape margin for the guy in the leather jacket? No prayer.
All this might seem strange when you consider who we’ve been electing to Congress and the Massachusetts Senate --- Gerry Studds, Bill Delahunt and Bill Keating to DC, Rob O’Leary, Dan Wolf and Julian Cyr to Boston, deep blue Democrats all the way. But both Studds and O’Leary were the first non-Republicans elected Cape-wide since Reconstruction, and the district’s conservative bent becomes obvious when you look at the Cape’s full State House delegation: Strongly Republican away from liberal strongholds of the Outer Cape and Falmouth, also Republican in Cape-wide races like sheriff and district attorney (while county commissioners, technically non-partisan, swing back and forth).
For anyone who doubts the historic Republican strength around here, consider this: When Democrat John F. Kennedy ran for President, with deep enough Hyannis roots to call Cape Cod home, Republican Richard Nixon carried the Cape.
Now fast forward: When Charlies Baker first ran for governor against Martha Coakley, it was a very close race. Baker won by only about 40,000 votes as Coakley proved to be a terrible candidate. Baker was helped by a left-wing third-party spoiler named Evan Falchuk who pulled 72,000 votes from people who couldn’t stomach voting for Coakley. But in the end what really mattered was that Baker won this Congressional district by 11 percent.
That brought him to the Corner Office, and if he decides he wants to run for a third consecutive term, something no one in Massachusetts has ever done (Mike Dukakis served three terms but not consecutively), Baker’s path is through the Cape.
So if you’re a Democrat, who do you see who could put up a Cape Cod roadblock to a popular Republican governor?
At one time the answer would have been obvious: State Senator Dan Wolf, and I say that not because I worked as his chief of staff and then senior adviser for six years. I say that because in his re-election, he got the most votes of anyone in Massachusetts history who has ever run for the Senate, from any district. One on one, there is zero doubt he would beat Charlie Baker on Cape Cod, even now.
But he is not a gubernatorial candidate, and it doesn’t look like the Democrats in it so far can amass that roadblock.
There is one more person who must be pondering the possibility, however, and she remains as coy as Baker about her intentions: Maura Healey.
NEXT: HOW KURT VONNEGUT USED CAPE COD TO SPIRIT AWAY
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